Comparing S&P 500 and Gold: Building resilient Singapore portfolio in 2025

In the first half of 2025, two pillars of long-term wealth strategy are charting starkly different paths. Gold has delivered an exceptional 25% year-to-date return, driven by persistent inflation concerns, geopolitical uncertainty, and record central-bank demand. 

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has posted a more modest gain of around 6%, as investors weigh resilient corporate earnings against elevated interest rates and a maturing AI-led rally.

This divergence is more than a headline—it poses a strategic question for investors. Is gold reclaiming its role as a core portfolio hedge in an uncertain macro environment? Or will U.S. equities continue to offer superior long-term growth, even through periodic volatility?

In this guide, we’ll examine the latest performance data, historical trends, risk profiles, inflation protection characteristics, and local tax considerations. The goal: to help you make a clear-eyed comparison of gold and the S&P 500, so you can decide how each fits into a well-balanced Singapore portfolio in 2025 and beyond.

How the balance of outperformance shifts over time

Over the past 5 decades, gold and the S&P 500 have offered investors very different experiences. Between 1971 and 2024, the S&P 500 delivered stronger annual returns in 31 of those years, reflecting its role as the primary driver of long-term growth in most portfolios. Periods of economic expansion, technological advancement, and corporate profitability—like the boom years of the 1980s, 1990s, and the prolonged bull market of the 2010s and early 2020s—favoured equities.

By contrast, gold outperformed in 23 of those years—around 43% of the time. Crucially, its strongest periods were not random. Gold excelled during times of financial stress and inflationary shocks: the 1970s oil crisis, the early 2000s dot-com bust, and the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. When gold did outperform, it did so with a notable average margin of nearly 29%, versus the S&P 500’s 20.5% average advantage in its winning years.

Gold also showed its defensive qualities during bear markets. In the nine years when the S&P 500 posted negative annual returns, gold outperformed in eight of them, averaging a positive 19.4% return while the S&P 500 declined by an average of 15.3%.

Evaluating gold and the S&P 500 as long-term investments

Both assets have delivered compelling results, but they serve distinct roles in a diversified portfolio—one offering exposure to economic growth and corporate earnings, the other providing protection against inflation, currency risks, and market stress.

Recent data shows how their average annualised and total returns compare across multiple horizons:

S&P 500 average returns (total return basis):

Source: Curvo

Gold average returns (spot price basis):

Source: Curvo

These figures highlight a nuanced reality for investors. Over 20 years, gold’s annualised return has been slightly higher than that of the S&P 500. However, equities have delivered consistent, robust returns over five- and ten-year horizons, supported by corporate profitability and reinvested dividends. 

For investors seeking to build resilient portfolios, this data underscores why both assets deserve consideration: equities for long-term growth and income, and gold as a strategic hedge that can preserve capital during market volatility and inflationary shocks.

Why the gap in S&P 500 vs gold performance widened in 2025

The striking divergence between gold’s nearly 27% surge and the S&P 500’s more modest 6.4% gain year-to-date in 2025 reflects a powerful mix of macroeconomic forces reshaping investor behaviour. For Singapore investors and global allocators alike, this widening gap is the biggest since the pandemic era, driven by structural shifts in central-bank strategy, trade policy uncertainty, monetary conditions, and equity market fundamentals.

Central banks provide a structural floor for gold

One of the most important drivers of gold’s rally has been sustained central-bank demand at historic levels. In 2025, official-sector purchases are projected to reach around 1,000 metric tons, only slightly below 2024’s record but still marking the fourth consecutive year of exceptional buying.

Key buyers—including China, Poland, Azerbaijan, and reportedly Iran—are motivated by efforts to diversify reserves and reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar. This so-called de-dollarisation trend has accelerated amid President Trump’s renewed tariff threats, public criticism of the Federal Reserve, and worries over the U.S. fiscal outlook.

As a result, central banks now account for more than 20% of global gold demand, cementing a structural support under prices even as jewellery and retail investment demand fluctuate.

For gold investors, this backdrop creates a more resilient floor under the market, amplifying its role as a hedge against currency and policy risk.

Trade tensions and tariff uncertainty support safe-haven demand

Another critical factor in 2025 has been the return of tariff uncertainty under Trump’s administration. This escalation has led to cost pressures that analysts estimate will raise U.S. household expenses by over $2,400 per year and push the effective tariff burden to its highest level since the 1930s.

Tariff uncertainty has also weighed on corporate earnings expectations, with consensus S&P 500 earnings estimates revised down from $234/share in early 2024 to $220/share by mid-2025.

Monetary policy divergence and real rates support gold

Monetary policy divergence is another contributor to gold’s outperformance. In Singapore, MAS Core Inflation is forecast to average 0.5–1.5% in 2025, down sharply from 2.8% in 2024.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Federal Reserve has kept a cautious approach to rate cuts even as real yields on 10-year Treasuries climbed to 2.2%, their highest level in a decade.

Despite these high yields, policy uncertainty—including Trump’s public attacks on the Fed—has boosted safe-haven demand.

Equity market concentration and earnings pressure weigh on the S&P 500

At the same time, the S&P 500 faces structural challenges. Earnings revisions have turned negative, with consensus 2025 EPS estimates cut by around 4% due to tariff impacts.

Market concentration is also near historic highs. The top 10 mega-cap stocks now make up 33% of the index’s total market cap, exceeding the peak concentration seen during the early 2000s tech bubble.

While these leaders have driven gains, the rest of the market has lagged. Excluding these mega-caps, the broader S&P 500 has seen earnings expectations cut by nearly 9.4% since early 2024.

Gold reclaims its safe-haven leadership

All of these forces have helped restore gold’s position as the leading safe-haven asset in 2025. While traditional havens like the Swiss franc, Japanese yen, and U.S. Treasuries have all seen demand, gold’s rally has outpaced them, reflecting its unique role in hedging policy uncertainty, geopolitical risk, and inflation concerns.

The Gold/S&P 500 ratio has fallen to its lowest since the pandemic era, signalling a shift in investor preference toward non-correlated assets not reliant on earnings or fiat policy stability.

How to buy S&P 500 and gold in Singapore

There are multiple ways to buy both asset classes in Singapore, from local SGX-listed ETFs to cost-efficient Ireland-domiciled funds. But fees, tax treatment, currency exposure, and estate planning risks all matter—and can dramatically change your net returns.

Below is a complete, step-by-step guide for Singapore investors to understand how to buy the S&P 500 and gold through ETFs, the differences between SGX-listed and overseas options, and what tax implications to consider.

Singapore-listed ETFs

For many retail investors, SGX-listed ETFs are the simplest way to buy both S&P 500 and gold exposure. These ETFs trade on the Singapore Exchange, typically in USD or SGD denominations, and integrate smoothly with local brokerages and CPF Investment Accounts.

SPDR S&P 500 ETF (S27) is the main SGX-listed option tracking the S&P 500. It trades in USD on SGX, with an expense ratio of 0.09%—slightly higher than U.S.-listed alternatives but accessible through local brokers with easy settlement in CDP accounts. It is also eligible for CPF Investment Scheme, making it attractive for long-term CPF-linked investing 

Key features include:

• Minimum lot size of 1 unit (~USD 623 in mid-2025)
• No U.S. estate tax exposure (it is Ireland-domiciled)
• 30% U.S. dividend withholding tax still applies on underlying index dividends

For gold, SPDR Gold Shares (GSD.SI / O87.SI) is the most popular SGX-listed ETF. This fund is physically backed with gold stored in London vaults and available in both SGD and USD trading denominations.

Advantages for Singapore investors include:

• CPF-approved for up to 10% of OA savings (CPF)
• 100% physical gold backing in LBMA-approved vaults
• GST-exempt as investment-grade bullion (>99.5% purity)

Because these ETFs are traded on SGX, investors can use familiar brokers like DBS Vickers, POEMS, and OCBC Securities. Settlement is in local CDP accounts, and CPFIS purchases are directly linked to CPF Investment Accounts, simplifying administration.

U.S.-listed ETFs

Investors who want lowest-cost S&P 500 exposure often look to U.S.-listed ETFs, which benefit from ultra-competitive fees, deep liquidity, and fractional share trading.

Top S&P 500 ETF choices on U.S. exchanges include:

• VOO (Vanguard S&P 500 ETF): 0.03% expense ratio
• IVV (iShares Core S&P 500 ETF): 0.03%
• SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF): 0.09%, but with massive liquidity

For gold, popular U.S.-listed options are:

• GLD (SPDR Gold Shares): 0.40% expense ratio
• IAU (iShares Gold Trust): 0.25%
• SGOL (abrdn Physical Gold Shares): 0.17%

However, U.S.-listed ETFs come with key tax considerations for Singapore investors:

• 30% U.S. dividend withholding tax on all dividend payments
• U.S. estate tax risk of up to 40% in the U.S.-situated assets over USD 60,000

These risks mean U.S.-listed ETFs may be best suited for smaller allocations under USD 60,000 or investors comfortable with estate planning strategies such as life insurance coverage.

Ireland-domiciled UCITS ETFs

To mitigate U.S. estate tax exposure and reduce dividend withholding, many Singapore investors use Ireland-domiciled UCITS ETFs. These funds are listed on European exchanges like the London Stock Exchange but can be bought through brokers such as Interactive Brokers (IBKR) and Syfe Trade.

Benefits include:

• No U.S. estate tax exposure regardless of portfolio size
• 15% U.S. dividend withholding tax under the U.S.–Ireland tax treaty
• Accumulating share classes that automatically reinvest dividends

Recommended S&P 500 UCITS ETFs include:

• iShares Core S&P 500 UCITS ETF (CSPX): 0.07% expense ratio
• Vanguard S&P 500 UCITS ETF (VUAA): 0.07%
• SPDR S&P 500 UCITS ETF (SPYL): 0.03%, among the lowest-cost Ireland-domiciled options

Ireland-domiciled ETFs effectively lower the total annual cost for dividend-heavy indices like the S&P 500. Even with slightly higher expense ratios than VOO or IVV, the tax savings on dividends (15% vs 30% withholding) can make them cheaper over time for non-U.S. investors.

Summary: S&P 500 ETFs

Summary: Gold ETFs

Platforms to buy S&P 500 & Gold ETFs in Singapore

Singapore investors have a range of brokerage options for accessing both locally listed ETFs on SGX and overseas ETFs in the U.S. and Ireland. The right platform depends on whether you want the simplicity of local settlement and CPF compatibility, or the cost efficiency and choice of international markets.

Where to buy Singapore-listed ETFs

For ETFs traded on the Singapore Exchange—such as SPDR S&P 500 ETF (S27) and SPDR Gold Shares (GSD.SI / O87.SI)—local brokers are the go-to choice. They offer direct SGX access, CPF Investment Scheme integration for approved ETFs, and settlement through your personal CDP account.

These brokers typically have transparent, standardised pricing, and make it easy to manage both cash and CPF-linked investments from a single platform.

These brokers also support CPFIS-approved ETFs, allowing you to deploy OA savings into approved S&P 500 and gold funds for long-term investing with full local compliance and record-keeping.

Where to buy U.S.- and Ireland-domiciled ETFs

For investors seeking U.S.-listed ETFs (like VOO, IVV, GLD) or Ireland-domiciled UCITS ETFs (such as CSPX, VUAA), international brokers and modern digital platforms provide access to overseas markets with competitive pricing, currency conversion, and advanced tools.

These platforms allow Singapore investors to tap into lower expense ratios, a wider choice of products, and strategies like fractional share investing or automatic dollar-cost averaging—all while managing FX risk and tax considerations.

StashAway offers Singapore investors two easy ways to gain S&P 500 and gold exposure: its fully managed General Investing portfolios automatically allocate to U.S. equities and gold ETFs as part of a globally diversified, ERAA®-driven strategy for hands-off investing, while its Flexible Portfolios let you customise your own mix, giving you full control over how much to allocate to S&P 500 or gold alongside other asset classes—all with seamless execution, custody, and reporting in one app.

Tax implications for Singapore investors

Capital gains tax

Singapore does not impose capital gains tax on the sale of ETFs, regardless of whether they are SGX-listed, U.S.-listed, or Ireland-domiciled. This means any profit made from selling ETF units is generally tax-free for individual investors.

Dividend withholding tax

Dividend income is treated differently depending on the ETF’s domicile:

• U.S.-listed ETFs incur a 30% dividend withholding tax on all distributions paid to Singapore-based investors. This tax is withheld at source before dividends are credited to your brokerage account.
• Ireland-domiciled UCITS ETFs benefit from the U.S.–Ireland tax treaty, reducing the withholding tax to 15%. This effectively halves the tax drag on S&P 500 index yields and is one reason many Singapore investors choose UCITS structures.
• SGX-listed ETFs that track U.S. indices (such as the SPDR S&P 500 ETF on SGX) still face the 30% withholding on underlying dividends because they invest in U.S. equities. However, they simplify administration and avoid other cross-border tax risks.

U.S. estate tax exposure

A critical, often overlooked risk for non-U.S. investors is U.S. estate tax.

• U.S.-listed ETFs are considered U.S.-situs assets, making them subject to U.S. estate tax of up to 40% on holdings exceeding USD 60,000 at the time of the investor’s death.
• Ireland-domiciled UCITS ETFs and SGX-listed ETFs are structured to avoid U.S. estate tax entirely. This makes them a safer choice for larger, long-term holdings, providing peace of mind without requiring complex estate planning workarounds.

GST treatment of gold

Singapore treats investment-grade gold (≥99.5% purity) as a GST-exempt asset. This makes gold ETFs like SPDR Gold Shares (listed on SGX in SGD and USD denominations) a practical, tax-efficient way to gain gold exposure without incurring Singapore’s 9% GST.

CPF Investment considerations for S&P 500 and gold ETFs

For Singaporeans using their Central Provident Fund (CPF) Ordinary Account (OA) to invest, there are specific rules and opportunities for gaining exposure to the S&P 500 and gold.

CPF’s Investment Scheme (CPFIS) is designed to let members deploy part of their OA savings into higher-risk assets to potentially earn better returns than the OA interest floor.

However, CPFIS comes with its own eligibility criteria, product approvals, and allocation limits that investors need to understand before committing CPF funds.

S&P 500 exposure via CPF

One accessible way for CPF members to invest in the S&P 500 is through SGX-listed ETFs that are CPFIS-approved, such as the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (S27). These ETFs allow CPF-linked brokerage accounts to buy direct exposure to the U.S. large-cap index, offering local settlement and CDP custody.

CPFIS investments in equities and unit trusts require meeting the minimum OA balance of SGD 20,000. Anything above that can be allocated, subject to CPFIS rules on product eligibility and risk classification.

Gold exposure via CPF

Gold is also a CPFIS-eligible asset class, but with stricter limits designed to manage risk. The SPDR Gold Shares (GSD.SI) ETF is the only gold ETF approved for CPF investment (CPF).

CPF members can allocate up to 10% of their investible OA savings to gold through this ETF. That allocation cap ensures gold remains a diversifier within the broader CPF portfolio rather than dominating retirement savings.

SPDR Gold Shares on SGX is fully backed by physical bullion stored in London vaults, and because investment-grade gold is GST-exempt in Singapore, CPF-linked purchases of GSD.SI are both tax-efficient and simple to administer.

Tax treatment and administration

All CPFIS-approved investments share the same tax-free treatment as regular CPF balances. Capital gains are not taxed in Singapore, and dividends or ETF distributions are credited to CPF-linked brokerage accounts without additional Singapore tax.

However, CPFIS rules require that the minimum OA balance of SGD 20,000 is maintained at all times. This ensures members retain a cash buffer earning the guaranteed OA interest rate (currently 2.5% p.a.) even as they pursue higher returns with CPFIS allocations.

Why you need both S&P 500 and gold in your 2025 portfolio

Investing in 2025 isn’t about picking a single winner—it’s about recognising the distinct roles that S&P 500 equities and gold play in building a resilient, long-term portfolio. Both assets respond differently to economic cycles, and that difference is your edge as an investor.

• Compound growth with S&P 500: U.S. equities remain the backbone of wealth creation, historically delivering ~11.5% annualised returns since 1971. They capture global corporate profits, innovation, and economic expansion—making them essential for long-term portfolio growth.
• Hedge against shocks with gold: Gold isn’t just a commodity—it’s a strategic insurance policy. It has outperformed in ~43% of the past 54 years, particularly during periods of inflation, crisis, and market downturns. In 2025, it’s already proven its worth as a hedge, outpacing equities amid geopolitical and monetary uncertainty.
• Invest wisely for your goals: The smartest portfolios blend these strengths. For most Singapore investors, that means combining core S&P 500 exposure with a 10–20% allocation to gold, balancing aggressive growth with meaningful downside protection. Use CPFIS where eligible, pick tax-efficient ETF structures, and rebalance regularly to keep your strategy disciplined and aligned with your goals.

Bottom line: Don’t choose between growth and safety—own both. That’s how you build a portfolio ready to navigate 2025’s uncertainties and deliver lasting results.